Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 10.267062 11.778451 13.404209 15.279253 17.378240 19.651519 22.295800
2025-11-23 7.885675 9.900516 12.236332 15.129062 18.598758 22.609353 27.577438
2025-11-30 6.761811 8.997486 11.716042 15.236330 19.642162 24.939704 31.753106
2025-12-07 6.031952 8.454095 11.526703 15.663883 21.035688 27.716147 36.585493
2025-12-14 5.238311 7.698842 10.942416 15.465631 21.533604 29.306837 39.916700
2025-12-21 4.429427 6.819273 10.089376 14.805766 21.332421 29.930009 41.972657
2025-12-28 4.098760 6.562933 10.042140 15.202857 22.529783 32.404806 46.530818
2026-01-04 3.776941 6.279491 9.920008 15.464982 23.528845 34.630822 50.823985
2026-01-11 3.397073 5.865494 9.565118 15.350036 23.963942 36.072267 54.070168
2026-01-18 3.058044 5.477926 9.211031 15.197297 24.313936 37.383591 57.159095
2026-01-25 2.797154 5.187983 8.977817 15.199778 24.875230 38.999841 60.723030
2026-02-01 2.591463 4.967924 8.832880 15.319815 25.605463 40.875333 64.715834
2026-02-08 2.363304 4.691768 8.582363 15.264820 26.076813 42.409226 68.306203
2026-02-15 2.142408 4.406086 8.292439 15.123022 26.398158 43.723996 71.616021
2026-02-22 1.988769 4.225378 8.161937 15.227259 27.103055 45.634976 75.876852
2026-03-01 1.901616 4.160008 8.224224 15.655694 28.348404 48.424973 81.579802
2026-03-08 1.727293 3.908494 7.935447 15.457139 28.539801 49.552526 84.722054
2026-03-15 1.506993 3.541628 7.406577 14.797727 27.913195 49.334616 85.716172
2026-03-22 1.446718 3.495183 7.467680 15.194580 29.103934 52.095257 91.550890
2026-03-29 1.373866 3.414706 7.456985 15.456600 30.067556 54.511571 96.900616
2026-04-05 1.263129 3.240826 7.251424 15.341702 30.356771 55.811642 100.461021
2026-04-12 1.158255 3.068389 7.034511 15.189037 30.565389 56.975439 103.823689
2026-04-19 1.078269 2.943790 6.903817 15.191516 31.050241 58.618815 108.029706